LimitlessOpen

How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: <375k

No98%
Yes2%

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ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 2 hours

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 02:58 PMSep 29, 01:16 AMSep 29, 11:34 AMSep 29, 09:52 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q3 2026 delivery figures by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press ; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 400k to 425kLimitless50% YesOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 375k to 400kLimitless98% NoOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 425k to 450kLimitless97% NoOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 450k to 475kLimitless90% NoOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 500k to 525kLimitless95% NoOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 475k to 500kLimitless82% YesOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 525k to 550kLimitless99% NoOpen
How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026: 550k+Limitless97% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:54 PM UTC