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New Mexico Senate election: Ben Ray Luján vote percent: Will Ben Ray Luján receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 New Mexico Senate election?

No92%
At least 66%8%

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Spread4%
ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Oct 1

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ben Ray Luján in the 2026 New Mexico Senate election is 66% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Ben Ray Luján ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.

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As of Oct 1, 03:21 AM UTC