KalshiOpen

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.17% or above

No83%

5.17% or above18%

Price checked at Sep 30, 01:33 AM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread19%

ResolvesOct 2, 2026in 3 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 2, 2026, or one week following Oct 2, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Oct 2, 2026? 4.91% or above	Kalshi	89% 4.91% or above	$1	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.19% or above	Kalshi	87% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	76% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	80% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	72% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	64% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	59% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Oct 2, 2026? 4.99% or above	Kalshi	64% 4.99% or above	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	60% 5.01% or above	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Oct 2, 2026? 4.95% or above	Kalshi	71% 4.95% or above	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	52% No	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% on Oct 2, 2026? 4.97% or above	Kalshi	68% 4.97% or above	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 2, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	55% 5.03% or above	$0	—	—	Open
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 2, 2026?: Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Oct 2, 2026? 4.93% or above	Kalshi	76% 4.93% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 30, 01:59 AM UTC