Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 12, the market resolves to Yes. Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing. Through September 25, 2026, official Fed statements record 7 qualifying dissents (January 2, March 1, April 1, June 0, July 3, September 0). April’s three additional dissents concerned statement language alone and are excluded. Qualifying dissents at unscheduled or emergency FOMC meetings count. Dissents concerning statement language alone do not count.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 11 | Kalshi | 91% No | Open |
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9 | Kalshi | 78% No | Open |
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8 | Kalshi | 77% No | Open |
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: at least 13 13+ | Kalshi | 97% No | Open |
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7 | Kalshi | 72% No | Open |
| Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10 | Kalshi | 90% No | Open |
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As of Sep 30, 06:55 AM UTC