KalshiOpen

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 12 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 12

No93%

Above 127%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:02 PM UTC

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24h volume$1.8K

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread2%

ResolvesOct 6, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 12 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 14 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 14	Kalshi	97% No	$1.2K	—	—	Open
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 6	Kalshi	62% Above 6	$1.2K	—	—	Open
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 10	Kalshi	89% No	$904.7	—	—	Open
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 8	Kalshi	75% No	$181.9	—	—	Open
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 4	Kalshi	92% Above 4	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 11:48 PM UTC