KalshiOpen

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/28 - 10/4): Will September 30 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (9/28 - 10/4)?

No85%
September 3015%

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24h volume$7
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 6, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 26Sep 27Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Sep 30, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.

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As of Sep 29, 11:01 PM UTC