Student list margin of victory in Serbia?: Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%? Student list, ≥15%

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the Student list if the Student list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the Student list loses. If the Student list wins, the margin will be positive; if the Student list loses, the margin will be negative; if the Student list ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote share is an electoral list’s votes divided by the total number of voters who voted, including invalid ballots, as reported in the certified results of the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia; this is the basis of the Commission’s published percentages. A candidate means an electoral list; seats won are not used. List ranking by national vote share applies; the multi-winner candidate rule does not apply to this list margin. If more than one registered list meets the Student list definition, their vote shares are combined. Student list: Any formally registered electoral list designated as its national parliamentary electoral list by the university students organizing Serbia’s nationwide university blockades, provided that the list does not contain SNS. No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.