Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S. federal court formally holds President Donald J. Trump, or any official, agency, employee, or representative of the Trump administration, in contempt of court in connection with the September 2026 revocation of White House press access for CNN, MS NOW, and/or Politico or a related court order, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Civil or criminal contempt will qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: the filing of a motion for contempt; an order to show cause why a party should not be held in contempt; a finding of probable cause that criminal contempt has occurred; a judge's verbal warning or admonishment; or sanctions, fees, or other relief imposed without a contempt finding. A qualifying contempt finding that is subsequently stayed, vacated, or reversed will still resolve this market to "Yes", provided the finding was issued on or before October 31, 2026. The resolution source will be official federal court records, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 1, 05:40 PM UTC