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Midterms: Democratic share of white non-college vote?: Will Democrats receive above 34% of the vote among white voters without a college degree in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Above 34%64%
No36%

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24h volume$0
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Spread10%
ResolvesFeb 6, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 25Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Oct 1

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Democratic share of the vote among white voters without a college degree in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 34%, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate row for white voters without a college degree (such as "White voters, no degree"), not a row further divided by gender or age, in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.

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As of Oct 1, 07:19 AM UTC