How many Florida mail votes will be cast?: Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
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Resolution rules
If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Florida page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. This is the tracker's figure at that time, not the final official count, and it may not include ballots received later on Election Day. If the page is unavailable at that time, the accept_all value for Florida in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) as of that time is used. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
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As of Oct 1, 06:49 AM UTC