KalshiResolved

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.97% or above

4.97% or above98%

No2%

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

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ResolvesSep 24, 20268 days ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.96% on Sep 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 24, 2026, or one week following Sep 24, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.17% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.17% or above	$1.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.15% or above	$1.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.11% or above	$1.5K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.13% or above	$1.2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.07% or above	$692.5	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.19% or above	Kalshi	72% No	$527	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.05% or above	$332.1	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.09% or above	$153	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.03% or above	$62	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.99% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.99% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.01% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.95% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.95% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.81% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.81% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.89% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.89% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.87% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.87% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.83% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.83% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.93% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.93% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.91% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.91% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Sep 24, 2026? 4.85% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.85% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 2, 08:27 PM UTC