KalshiResolved

US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 425 million barrels?

No—
Above 425 million barrels—

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ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 24Sep 25Sep 27Sep 28Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 are strictly above 425 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending Sep 25, 2026. This measure excludes crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels. Values stated in millions of barrels will be converted directly from the EIA-reported value. The market will use the first EIA publication for the specified week. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 428 million barrels?Kalshi61% Above 428 million barrelsOpen
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 431 million barrels?Kalshi74% NoOpen
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?Kalshi93% Above 420 million barrelsOpen
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 429 million barrels?Kalshi70% NoOpen
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 430 million barrels?Kalshi67% NoOpen
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 432 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 427 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 426 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 423 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 424 million barrels?Kalshi—Open
US crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept 25, 2026: Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?Kalshi—Open

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As of Sep 30, 03:50 PM UTC