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Who will be a part of the next government of British Columbia?: Will BC NDP be a part of the next government in British Columbia?

BC NDP65%
No35%

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ResolvesNov 24, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 24Sep 25Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a coalition that includes BC NDP make up the next elected ruling government of British Columbia before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test. A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description. These individual-party descriptions do not specify such an arrangement, so confidence and supply without a qualifying ministerial position does not count. If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.

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As of Sep 29, 11:47 PM UTC