KalshiOpen

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.41% or above

5.41% or above99%

No1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:29 PM UTC

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24h volume$164

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 22 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.40% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.42% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.43% or above	Kalshi	98% 5.43% or above	$227	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.55% or above	Kalshi	77% 5.55% or above	$17	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.38% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.39% or above	Kalshi	98% 5.39% or above	$11.1	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.59% or above	Kalshi	50% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.57% or above	Kalshi	54% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.53% or above	Kalshi	73% 5.53% or above	$1	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.36% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.37% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.37% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.35% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.35% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.31% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.31% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.27% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.27% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.29% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.29% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.33% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.33% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.23% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.23% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.19% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.19% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.21% or above	Kalshi	89% 5.21% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.17% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.17% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.25% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.25% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.15% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.11% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	95% 5.13% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.48% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.49% or above	Kalshi	96% 5.49% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.51% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.51% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.46% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.47% or above	Kalshi	54% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% on Sep 30, 2026? 5.45% or above	Kalshi	98% 5.45% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 09:12 PM UTC