When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?: Will it be reported by President Donald J. Trump or the White House that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029?

If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing another source’s content qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A position is considered Cabinet-level if the President or White House formally designates its holder as a member of the Cabinet or as holding Cabinet rank. Merely attending Cabinet meetings, advising the President, holding the title “Assistant to the President,” or leading an office within the Executive Office of the President does not by itself qualify. The person must have assumed the position; an announced intention to appoint someone does not qualify. Artificial intelligence must be a primary and distinct responsibility of the position. Officials whose responsibilities include AI only as part of a broader portfolio covering science, technology, economic policy, national security, or another policy area do not qualify. The Cabinet-level designation must belong to the AI position itself: an official who holds Cabinet rank through another office and is additionally assigned AI responsibilities qualifies only if the White House formally designates that AI role as Cabinet-level. A Secretary of Artificial Intelligence, a Cabinet-rank AI czar, or the head of a newly created Cabinet-level department or agency primarily responsible for artificial intelligence would qualify.