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Will Alani Bankhead drop out?: Will Alani Bankhead drop out of the 2026 Montana Senate race before Nov 3, 2026? Yes

No90%
Yes10%

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ResolvesNov 3, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 22Sep 24Sep 26Sep 28Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

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Resolution rules

If Alani Bankhead drops out of the 2026 Montana Senate race before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. "Dropped out" means any of the following: Alani Bankhead announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign Alani Bankhead files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities Alani Bankhead publicly states they are no longer seeking the office Alani Bankhead endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running Alani Bankhead is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter "Suspending" a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Alani Bankhead explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party's primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot

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As of Sep 29, 07:32 PM UTC