Will the Parti Québécois win by between 30 and 39 seats?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Parti Québécois win by between 10 and 19 seats? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Will the Parti Québécois win by less than 10 seats? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats? | Polymarket | 72% No | Open |
| Will the Parti Québécois win by at least 40 seats? | Polymarket | 74% No | Open |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC