PolymarketResolved

Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 35 kt or more?

Yes100%
No0%

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24h volume$168.8
7d volume$1.1K
30d volume$1.1K
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesSep 29, 202618 hours ago

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 22, 06:19 PMSep 23, 02:40 PMSep 24, 11:00 AMSep 25, 07:21 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest wind gust reported at New York LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) between 12:00 AM ET September 24, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET September 28, 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying value is the highest of the gust (Gxx) in the wind group and the peak wind (PK WND) remark speed at KLGA within that window, in knots as reported. In a wind group written as 07017G30KT the gust is the value after the letter G, here 30 kt. In a remark written as PK WND 05026/1151 the peak wind speed is the value after the three digit wind direction, here 26 kt, and 1151 is the time of that peak in UTC. A gust (Gxx) counts if the METAR or SPECI observation reporting it falls within the window. A peak wind (PK WND) counts if the time stamped inside the remark falls within the window. These are not the same test: a peak wind remark reports the highest wind since the previous routine observation, so it can lag the observation carrying it by up to one hour. Peak wind times are stamped in UTC and will be converted to ET before being compared to the window. Observations published up to one hour after the window closes will also be read, so that a peak wind occurring in the final hour of the window is captured. A peak wind timed outside the window will not be considered for resolution. The observation as first published governs. A revision published after an observation is first published will not be considered for resolution, except where the correction provision below applies. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive differing from other sources. Otherwise, once a finalized observation has met or exceeded the listed value, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. If any observation remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after September 28, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized observations published up to that point. If no wind observation for the window has been published by the end of that period, this market will resolve to "No". Every market in this event may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive for station LGA, which publishes the routine and special observations for KLGA. The link below deliberately spans a wider range of dates than the market window, so that it returns observations before the window opens and for one hour after it closes. Observations dated outside September 24 to September 28, 2026 are shown for context only and do not count toward resolution. The archive is available here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?station=LGA&data=metar&year1=2026&month1=9&day1=21&year2=2026&month2=9&day2=30&tz=America%2FNew_York&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&report_type=3&report_type=4

Sourcehttps://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?station=LGA&data=metar&year1=2026&month1=9&day1=21&year2=2026&month2=9&day2=30&tz=America%2FNew_York&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&report_type=3&report_type=4

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 40 kt or more?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 30 kt or more?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 25 kt or more?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 45 kt or more?Polymarket100% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:30 PM UTC