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Will Polymarket or Kalshi IPO first?

Kalshi52%

Polymarket48%

Price checked at Oct 1, 08:09 PM UTC

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Spread6%

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Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Polymarket" if Polymarket completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Kalshi completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "Kalshi" if Kalshi completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Polymarket completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

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As of Oct 1, 08:29 PM UTC