PolymarketOpen

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?

No64%
Yes37%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$106.9
Spread29%
ResolvesOct 16, 2026in 16 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Polymarket67% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 12:23 AM UTC