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Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?: Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

At least 75%54%
No46%

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24h volume$0
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Spread8%
ResolvesJan 19, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 22Sep 24Sep 26Sep 28Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 75% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Alberta should remain a province of Canada) on Question 10 of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum, as reported in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results. Preliminary results do not qualify. Valid votes are votes for either Question 10 option; blank and rejected ballots are excluded. Rounding follows Elections Alberta’s reported convention. If no qualifying results are released by expiration, the market resolves to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange.

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As of Sep 29, 09:24 PM UTC