KalshiOpen

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?: Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Yes

No80%
Yes20%

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24h volume$263.2
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread3%
ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 22Sep 24Sep 26Sep 28Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. All conditions must be satisfied on February 1, 2027. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

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As of Sep 29, 11:26 PM UTC