KalshiResolved

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.81% or above

No94%

4.81% or above6%

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24h volume$552

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread—

ResolvesSep 22, 20269 days ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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No recorded data before Sep 22 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 22, 2026, or one week following Sep 22, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.69% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.69% or above	$872	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.75% or above	Kalshi	97% 4.75% or above	$637.2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.76% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.77% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$390	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.79% or above	Kalshi	81% No	$382.7	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.61% or above	Kalshi	91% 4.61% or above	$194	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.71% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.71% or above	$186	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.65% or above	Kalshi	96% 4.65% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.63% or above	Kalshi	96% 4.63% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.67% or above	Kalshi	96% 4.67% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.83% or above	Kalshi	89% No	$42.8	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.72% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.73% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.73% or above	$31	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.85% or above	Kalshi	91% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Sep 22, 2026? 4.87% or above	Kalshi	95% No	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 1, 07:51 AM UTC