Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above -0.30, then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average (“CFNAI-MA3”) or the CFNAI Diffusion Index. This market will resolve using the value for September 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the September 2026 CFNAI. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40? | Kalshi | 96% Above -0.40 | Open |
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10? | Kalshi | 71% Above -0.10 | Open |
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.10? | Kalshi | 70% No | Open |
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.20? | Kalshi | 85% No | Open |
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20? | Kalshi | 88% Above -0.20 | Open |
| Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00? | Kalshi | 51% Above 0.00 | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 1, 08:52 PM UTC