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Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? : Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? Yes

No83%
Yes17%

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24h volume$5.8K
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesNov 10, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 22Sep 24Sep 25Sep 27Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

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As of Sep 29, 11:09 PM UTC