PolymarketResolved

Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 28, 2026?

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesSep 28, 20263 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 21, 08:51 PMSep 22, 07:09 PMSep 23, 05:28 PMSep 24, 03:46 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 24, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 7, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 3, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 1, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 6, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 30, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 25, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 2, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 26, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 8, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 5, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 4, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 23, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 12, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 9, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 27, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 10, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 29, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will there be no next OpenAI GPT Luna model release by October 15, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 14, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 15, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 13, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on October 11, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 1, 09:09 PM UTC