Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

No75%
Yes25%

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24h volume$336.6
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Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 21Sep 23Sep 25Sep 27Sep 29

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market predicts the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, awarded annually by France Football to the best men's footballer of the year. ### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner, expected in late October 2026. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the player who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, provided he is listed as an outcome in this market. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other players. ### **Resolution Details:** - This market will only be resolved through official results posted by France Football. - In case the resolution source fails to upload, a consensus of credible reporting can be used to resolve. - If no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution source is compromised or unavailable for prolonged periods. - The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is cancelled or postponed indefinitely. - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively. If the market is cancelled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.

Sourcehttps://www.francefootball.fr/

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket, Limitless, Opinion, and PredictFun use France Football and specify an “Other” fallback if no winner is declared; Myriad resolves all outcomes to No in that case and includes additional cancellation/alternative-source provisions. The listed settlement timestamps also differ or are absent, without changing the event being measured.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

    1.6K holders · 1.1K comments · read Sep 29, 04:58 PM UTC

  • LimitlessOpen →

    Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Kylian Mbappé

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football ( https://www.francefootball.fr/ )

    7 holders · read Sep 29, 04:32 PM UTC

  • OpinionOpen →

    Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 — Kylian Mbappé

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

    read Sep 29, 08:14 PM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

    read Sep 29, 06:31 PM UTC

  • Myriadthis market

    Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    This market predicts the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, awarded annually by France Football to the best men's footballer of the year. ### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner, expected in late October 2026. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the player who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, provided he is listed as an outcome in this market. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other players. ### **Resolution Details:** - This market will only be resolved through official results posted by France Football. - In case the resolution source fails to upload, a consensus of credible reporting can be used to resolve. - If no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution source is compromised or unavailable for prolonged periods. - The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is cancelled or postponed indefinitely. - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively. If the market is cancelled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.

    read Sep 29, 08:01 PM UTC

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As of Sep 29, 08:26 PM UTC