Which bubble bursts first?

### **Market Details:** - **Market Period:** From the market publication until its resolution. - **Market Close:** This market will only be closed once a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - The market aims to track who experiences an industry downturn first: AI or Crypto. - The Market resolves to “**AI**” if at least 3 of the following events have occurred within 90 days of each other, first: - NVIDIA Corporation ([NVDA](https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp)) is 50% below its ATH — from $212.19 to $106.09 - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX](https://www.nasdaq.com/de/market-activity/etf/soxx/historical)) is 40% below its ATH — from $363.8 to $218.28 - Oracle Corporation ([ORCL](https://www.nasdaq.com/de/market-activity/stocks/orcl/historical)) is 60% below its ATH — from $345.72 to $138.29 - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days. - OpenAI, Inc. declares bankruptcy. - Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - The Market resolves to “**Crypto**” if at least 3 of the following events have occurred within 90 days of each other, first: - [BTC](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?type=spot) falls 60% below its ATH — from $126,199.63 to $50,479.85 - [ETH](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT?type=spot) falls 70% below its ATH — from $4,956.78 to $1,487.00 - [SOL](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT?type=spot) falls 70% below its ATH — from $295.83 to $88.75 - Market Target hit on 05.02.2026 ✅ - [BNB](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT?type=spot) falls 70% below its ATH — from $1,375.11 to $412.53 - Microstrategy sells any amount of Bitcoin. - Market Target hit on 31.05.2026 ✅ - Microstrategy publically declares bankruptcy. - [USDT](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/USDT_USD?type=spot) depegs to 0.9000 or lower. ### **Resolution Sources:** - To confirm stock market targets, the Nasdaq Historical Quotes for each stock will be used, specifically the daily closes. - To confirm the H100 rental price, the SiliconData [Silicon Index](https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index) will be used. - To confirm news such as OpenAI, Inc or Microstrategy declaring bankruptcy, the following news outlets will be used: [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [AP News](https://apnews.com/). - To confirm Crypto market targets, Binance USDT (USD for the USDT depeg target) spot markets will be used with the following specifications: - 1-minute timeframe ("1m"). - Trading View. - "Close" price of each candle. ### **Resolution Details:** - All-time high refers to the highest price ever reached for each specific asset. - For crypto targets, the ATH is defined by the USDT chart linked to each asset. - For stock market targets the ATH is defined by the Advanced Charting function by Nasdaq that is present on the linked resolution source for all assets. - If an asset’s all-time high changes during the Market Period, the downside price targets will be recalculated, adjusted, and updated in the market rules accordingly. - The market resolves when **three qualifying events occur within a 90-day rolling window** for either sector. The window will be monitored in UTC. - Events are tracked **separately for each sector** (Crypto and AI). - **Example:** If no AI events occur, and BTC hits its threshold on March 2, 2026, ETH on April 9, 2026, and BNB on May 28, 2026—all within 90 days—the market resolves to “Crypto”. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution sources become unavailable or experience significant disruptions. - Any circumstance prevents reliable tracking. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.

Sourcehttps://www.binance.com/en