Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

No98%
Yes2%

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria differ in no material way. Polymarket lists a nominal settlement timestamp of December 31, 2026, while PredictFun has no separate resolvesAt value, but both criteria specify resolution by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
  • PredictFunthis market

    Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

    read Sep 30, 08:27 AM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

    99 holders · 13 comments · read Sep 29, 09:05 PM UTC

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As of Sep 30, 04:32 PM UTC