Poland vs Romania: spread: Poland (-2.5)

Romania83%
Poland17%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$1.8K
Spread4%
ResolvesOct 2, 2026in 2 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 2 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Poland" if Poland win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Romania". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Sourcehttps://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket labels the outcomes Poland/Romania and specifies UEFA as the primary source with fallback sources and cancellation/postponement rules; Kalshi uses Yes/No-style outcomes and publishes no resolution source or comparable contingency rules. The different listed settlement times are not material to the question.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Poland vs Romania: spread: Poland (-2.5)

    In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 2 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Poland" if Poland win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Romania". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

  • KalshiOpen →

    Poland vs Romania: Spread: spread: Poland (-2.5)

    If Poland wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Poland vs Romania professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Poland vs Romania: total O/U 6.5Polymarket97% UnderOpen
Poland vs Romania: spread: Poland (-1.5)Polymarket63% RomaniaOpen
Poland vs Romania: total O/U 0.5Polymarket94% OverOpen
Poland vs Romania: 1st half total O/U 4.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania 2nd Half O/U 3.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs Romania: total O/U 3.5Polymarket69% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfPolymarket50% NoOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland 1st Half O/U 2.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania O/U 2.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania 1st Half O/U 3.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania O/U 0.5Polymarket58% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania 1st Half O/U 2.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania 2nd Half O/U 1.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania O/U 3.5Polymarket53% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland 1st Half O/U 0.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland O/U 5.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Poland vs Romania: 1st half total O/U 1.5Polymarket66% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania 2nd Half O/U 2.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland O/U 0.5Polymarket51% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score in First HalfPolymarket83% NoOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Romania O/U 1.5Polymarket81% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland O/U 4.5Polymarket52% UnderOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland O/U 1.5Polymarket58% OverOpen
Poland vs. Romania: Poland 1st Half O/U 1.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Poland vs Romania: total O/U 1.5Polymarket77% OverOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 10:41 AM UTC