KalshiResolved

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.61% or above

4.61% or above94%

No6%

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

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ResolvesSep 25, 20267 days ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 25, 2026, or one week following Sep 25, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.87% or above	Kalshi	97% No	$976.2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.85% or above	Kalshi	64% 4.85% or above	$753.7	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.83% or above	Kalshi	60% No	$550.2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.81% or above	Kalshi	60% No	$539.3	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.89% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$409	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.93% or above	Kalshi	96% No	$233.2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.91% or above	Kalshi	97% No	$39.8	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.95% or above	Kalshi	96% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.97% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.79% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.79% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.76% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.77% or above	Kalshi	90% 4.77% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.75% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.75% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.72% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.73% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.73% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.71% or above	Kalshi	52% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.67% or above	Kalshi	95% 4.67% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.63% or above	Kalshi	94% 4.63% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.69% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.65% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.65% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.50% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.51% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.51% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.55% or above	Kalshi	91% 4.55% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.52% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.53% or above	Kalshi	71% 4.53% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.56% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.57% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.58% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.59% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.99% or above	Kalshi	88% No	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 2, 03:11 PM UTC