KalshiOpen

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Amy Klobuchar be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

No95%
Amy Klobuchar5%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesNov 1, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 18Sep 21Sep 24Sep 27Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Amy Klobuchar is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Stephen A. Smith be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi90% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi73% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Mitch Landrieu be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi88% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Raphael Warnock be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi92% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Mark Kelly be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will James Talarico be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Gina Raimondo be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Graham Platner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Andrew Yang be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Cory Booker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi91% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Kalshi94% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:15 PM UTC