Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026? Yes
Price has not been independently checked yet.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If a listed news source reports before Oct 1, 2026 that China announced additional purchases of U.S. agricultural products during September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Additional purchases mean a new or expanded purchase commitment beyond previously announced commitments. Repetition, allocation, or fulfillment of an existing commitment does not qualify. The existing commitments include at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028, and at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products annually in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028 in addition to those soybean commitments. Predictions or negotiations alone do not qualify. Shipment, delivery, or other implementation is not required.
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 2, 05:41 PM UTC