What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 18, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.6
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Other legs of this event
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As of Sep 30, 03:23 PM UTC