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When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?: Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

No67%
Before Jul 1, 202733%

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24h volume$0
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Spread8%
ResolvesJan 7, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 17Sep 20Sep 24Sep 27Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government authority to activate it is not required. A general power to ban AI development or deployment does not qualify without a required technical shutdown capability. The capability need not be activated before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).

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As of Sep 30, 12:07 PM UTC