KalshiOpen

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

No99%
Above 5.0%1%

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24h volume$600
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 13, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 17Sep 20Sep 23Sep 26Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 5.0% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi87% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi51% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi93% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi67% Above 3.6%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi89% Above 3.4%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi88% Above 3.5%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% Above 3.3%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi98% Above 3.0%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi88% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi97% Above 3.2%Open
Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY): Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi96% Above 3.1%Open

Venue activity

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Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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Open interest—
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As of Sep 29, 09:24 PM UTC