KalshiOpen

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 18% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

No94%

Above 18%6%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:50 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread5%

ResolvesFeb 6, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 18%, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 14% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	85% No	$0	—	—	Open
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 16% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	83% Above 8%	$0	—	—	Open
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	58% No	$0	—	—	Open
Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?: Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	93% Above 6%	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 11:16 PM UTC