2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional): Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points? Democrats, ≥8%
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Resolution rules
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
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As of Sep 29, 07:26 PM UTC