Number of rate hikes in 2026?: Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of rate hikes in 2026?: Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Kalshi | 77% No | Open |
| Number of rate hikes in 2026?: Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026? | Kalshi | 69% No | Open |
| Number of rate hikes in 2026?: Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026? | Kalshi | 51% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 11:15 PM UTC