Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 5% or more?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).