Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lars Klingbeil be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Sahra Wagenknecht be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Felix Banaszak be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 92% No | Open |
| Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 86% No | Open |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC