KalshiResolved

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.09% or above

5.09% or above99%

No1%

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24h volume$671

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread—

ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 20 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on any business day between Sep 14, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Sep 14, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.26% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.26% or above	$1.1K	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.21% or above	Kalshi	90% 5.21% or above	$658.9	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.08% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.08% or above	$528	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.07% or above	$480	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.3% or above	Kalshi	82% No	$458.6	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.35% or above	Kalshi	95% No	$388.6	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.1% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.1% or above	$388	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.14% or above	Kalshi	96% 5.14% or above	$234.3	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	96% 5.13% or above	$234.3	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.06% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.06% or above	$224	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.15% or above	$209.9	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.04% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.04% or above	$152	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.03% or above	$101.2	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.02% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.02% or above	$94	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.05% or above	$0	—	—	Open
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.12% or above	Kalshi	90% 5.12% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 11:50 PM UTC