Bank of Japan Decision in October: 50+ bps increase

No99%
Yes1%

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ResolvesOct 30, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 14Sep 18Sep 22Sep 26Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 ( https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm ). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan ( https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm ), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical, including the BOJ source, rounding convention, early resolution, and fallback if no statement is issued.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

    The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    53 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 05:40 PM UTC

  • Limitlessthis market

    Bank of Japan Decision in October: 50+ bps increase

    The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 ( https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm ). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan ( https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm ), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 06:05 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Bank of Japan Decision in October: 50+ bps decreaseLimitless99% NoOpen
Bank of Japan Decision in October: 25 bps decreaseLimitless99% NoOpen
Bank of Japan Decision in October: No changeLimitless73% YesOpen
Bank of Japan Decision in October: 25 bps increaseLimitless72% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:16 PM UTC