OpinionOpen

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

No96%

Yes5%

Price checked at Oct 1, 01:45 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$29.5

7d volume$29.5

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread—

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 5% · best ask 16%

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Oct 1, 01:57 PM UTC