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Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?: Will Hodge be solved next before 2045? Hodge Conjecture

No90%
Hodge Conjecture10%

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24h volume$10
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30d volume—
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Spread52%
ResolvesJan 7, 2045in 18 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 13Sep 17Sep 21Sep 25Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Hodge Conjecture is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems. A qualifying solution ceases to count if, before Expiration, it is formally retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, or found to contain an identified and unaddressed error.

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As of Sep 30, 03:35 AM UTC