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Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 8.0 million bpd?

No73%
Above 8.0 million bpd27%

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24h volume$200
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread28%
ResolvesOct 20, 2026in 21 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 16Sep 21Sep 25Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 8.0 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference period. Specifically, the market will use the Saudi production figure identified in the note accompanying the table titled “OPEC crude oil production based on direct communication.” This market will not use OPEC’s secondary-sources estimate or Saudi Arabia’s “supply to the market” figure. OPEC reports the figure in thousands of barrels per day. The reported value will be divided by 1,000 to convert it to millions of barrels per day. No additional rounding will be applied. The first value published by OPEC will be used. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.5 million bpd?Kalshi62% NoOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.0 million bpd?Kalshi70% NoOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.5 million bpd?Kalshi74% NoOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?Kalshi79% Above 4.5 million bpdOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.0 million bpd?Kalshi52% NoOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?Kalshi68% Above 5.0 million bpdOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?Kalshi51% Above 5.5 million bpdOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?Kalshi84% Above 4.0 million bpdOpen
Saudi crude oil production in September: Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?Kalshi96% Above 3.5 million bpdOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 09:35 PM UTC