KalshiOpen

IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?

At least 48%95%
No5%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 16Sep 20Sep 25Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Sarah Trone Garriott in the 2026 IA-03 House election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Sarah Trone Garriott ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi96% NoOpen
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi74% NoOpen
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi91% NoOpen
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi96% NoOpen
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi74% At least 50%Open
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi51% At least 52%Open
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi97% At least 44%Open
IA-03 House election: Sarah Trone Garriott vote percent: Will Sarah Trone Garriott receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 IA-03 House election?Kalshi96% At least 46%Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 10:30 PM UTC