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LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?

No94%
At least 40%6%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 16Sep 20Sep 25Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Matt Gromlich in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Matt Gromlich ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi99% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi97% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi96% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi96% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi93% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi85% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi95% NoOpen
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi78% At least 6%Open
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi76% At least 8%Open
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi74% At least 10%Open
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round): Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 14% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Kalshi64% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC