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NY-17 House election: Cait Conley vote percent: Will Cait Conley receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-17 House election?

No98%
At least 58%3%

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ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12, 12:04 AMSep 12, 04:15 AMSep 12, 08:26 AMSep 12, 12:37 PM

No recorded data before Sep 12 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Cait Conley in the 2026 NY-17 House election is 58% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Cait Conley ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Votes for Cait Conley across all certified ballot lines are combined.

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As of Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC