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OR-03 House election: Loran Ayles vote percent: Will Loran Ayles receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 OR-03 House election?

At least 18%89%
No11%

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ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 16Sep 20Sep 25Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Loran Ayles in the 2026 OR-03 House election is 18% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Loran Ayles ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.

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As of Sep 29, 07:20 PM UTC